A major new scientific report charts an urgent course correction for how the world grows food and uses land in order to avoid irretrievably compromising Earth’s capacity to support human and environmental well-being.
Produced under the leadership of Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in collaboration with the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the report was launched as nearly 200 UNCCD member states began their COP16 summit on Monday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Land is the foundation of Earth’s stability, the report underlines. It regulates climate, preserves biodiversity, maintains freshwater systems and provides life-giving resources including food, water and raw materials. The report, Stepping back from the precipice: Transforming land management to stay within planetary boundaries, draws on roughly 350 information sources to examine land degradation and opportunities to act from a planetary boundaries perspective.
Deforestation, urbanisation and unsustainable farming, however, are causing global land degradation at an unprecedented scale, threatening not only different Earth system components but human survival itself.
Moreover, the deterioration of forests and soils undermines Earth’s capacity to cope with the climate and biodiversity crises, which in turn accelerate land degradation in a vicious, downward cycle of impacts.
UNCCD Executive Secretary, Ibrahim Thiaw, said, “If we fail to acknowledge the pivotal role of land and take appropriate action, the consequences will ripple through every aspect of life and extend well into the future, intensifying difficulties for future generations.”
Already today, land degradation disrupts food security, drives migration, and fuels conflicts.
The global area impacted by land degradation – approx. 15 million km², more than the entire continent of Antarctica or nearly the size of Russia – is expanding each year by about a million square km.
Planetary boundaries
The report situates both problems and potential solutions related to land use within the scientific framework of the planetary boundaries, which has rapidly gained policy relevance since its unveiling 15 years ago.
The planetary boundaries define nine critical thresholds essential for maintaining Earth’s stability. How humanity uses or abuses land directly impacts seven of these, including climate change, species loss and ecosystem viability, freshwater systems, and the circulation of naturally occurring elements nitrogen and phosphorus. Change in land use is also a planetary boundary.
Alarmingly, six boundaries have already been breached to date, and two more are close to their thresholds: ocean acidification and the concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere. Only stratospheric ozone – the object of a 1989 treaty to reduce ozone-depleting chemicals – is firmly within its “safe operating space”.
“The aim of the planetary boundaries framework is to provide a measure for achieving human wellbeing within Earth’s ecological limits,” said Johan Rockström, lead author of the seminal study introducing the concept in 2009.
“We stand at a precipice and must decide whether to step back and take transformative action, or continue on a path of irreversible environmental change.”
The benchmark for land use, for example, is the extent of the world’s forests before significant human impact. Anything above 75 per cent keeps us within safe bounds, but forest cover has already been reduced to only 60 per cent of its original area, according to the most recent update of the planetary boundaries framework by Katherine Richardson and colleagues.
Until recently, land ecosystems absorbed nearly one third of human-caused CO₂ pollution, even as those emissions increased by half. Over the last decade, however, deforestation and climate change have reduced by 20 per cent the capacity of trees and soil to absorb excess CO₂.
Unsustainable agricultural practices
Conventional agriculture is the leading culprit of land degradation, contributing to deforestation, soil erosion and pollution. Unsustainable irrigation practices deplete freshwater resources, while excessive use of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilisers destabilise ecosystems.
Degraded soils lower crop yields and nutritional quality, directly impacting the livelihoods of vulnerable populations. Secondary effects include greater dependency on chemical inputs and increased land conversion for farming.
The infamous Dust Bowl of the 1930s resulted from large-scale land-use changes and inadequate soil conservation.
Land degradation hotspots today stem from intensive agricultural production and high irrigation demands, particularly in dry regions such as South Asia, northern China, the US High Plains, California, and the Mediterranean.
Meanwhile, climate change – which has long since breached its own planetary boundary – accelerates land degradation through extreme weather events, prolonged droughts, and intensified floods. Melting mountain glaciers and altered water cycles heighten vulnerabilities, especially in arid regions.
Transformative action
Transformative action to combat land degradation is needed to ensure a return to the safe operating space for the land-based planetary boundaries. Just as the planetary boundaries are interconnected, so must be the actions to prevent or slow their transgression.
Principles of fairness and justice are key when designing and implementing transformative actions to stop land degradation, ensuring that benefits and burdens are equitably distributed.
Agriculture reform, soil protection, water resource management, digital solutions, sustainable or green supply chains, equitable land governance along with the protection and restoration of forests, grasslands, savannas and peatlands are crucial for halting and reversing land and soil degradation.
Regenerative agriculture is primarily defined by its outcomes, including improved soil health, carbon sequestration and biodiversity enhancement. Agroecology emphasises holistic land management, including the integration of forestry, crops and livestock management.
Woodland regeneration, no-till farming, nutrient management, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, intercropping, organic fertiliser, improved use of compost and biochar – can all enhance soil carbon and boost yields.
Savannas are under severe threat from human-induced land degradation, yet are essential for ecological and human wellbeing. A major store of biodiversity and carbon, they cover 20 per cent of the Earth’s land surface but are increasingly being lost to cropland expansion and misguided afforestation.
The current rate of groundwater extraction exceeds replenishment in 47 per cent of global aquifers, so more efficient irrigation is crucial to reduce agricultural freshwater use.
Globally, the water sector must continue to shift from “grey” infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, channels, treatment plants) to “green” (reforestation, floodplain restoration, forest conservation or recharging aquifers).
More efficient delivery of chemical fertiliser is likewise essential: currently, only 46 per cent of nitrogen and 66 per cent of phosphorus applied as fertiliser is taken up by crops. The rest runs off into freshwater bodies, and coastal areas with dire consequences for the environment.
By the numbers
Recent research highlights:
- 7 out of 9: Planetary boundaries impacted by land use, underscoring its central role in Earth systems.
- 60 per cent: Remaining global forest cover—well below the safe boundary of 75 per cent.
- 15 million km²: Degraded land area, more than the size of Antarctica, expanding by 1 million km² annually.
- 20 per cent: Earth’s land surface covered by savannas, now under threat from cropland expansion and ill-conceived afforestation.
- 46 per cent: Global land area classified as drylands, home to a third of humanity; 75 per cent of Africa is dryland.
- 90 per cent: Share of recent deforestation directly caused by agriculture—dominated by expanding cropland in Africa/Asia, livestock grazing in South America.
- 80 per cent: Agriculture’s contribution to global deforestation; 70 per cent of freshwater use.
- 23 per cent: Greenhouse gas emissions stemming from agriculture, forestry, and land use.
- 50 per cent vs. 6 per cent: Share of agricultural emissions from deforestation in lower-income vs. higher-income countries.
- 46 per cent/66 per cent: Fertiliser efficiency for nitrogen and phosphorus; the rest runs off with dire consequences.
- 2,700+: National policies addressing nitrogen pollution while phosphorus is largely overlooked.
- 10 per cent: World’s arable land planted with genetically modified crops by 2018—dominated by soy (78%), cotton (76%), and maize (30%).
- 11,700 years: Length of the Holocene period, during which Earth’s temperature varied within a narrow 0.5C range—until a 1.3C rise since the mid-19th century.
- 1/3: Anthropogenic CO2 absorbed by land ecosystems annually.
- 25 per cent: Share of global biodiversity found in soil.
- 20 per cent: Decline in trees’ and soil’s CO2 absorption capacity since 2015 attributed to climate change.
- 3 per cent: Freshwater share of Earth’s water, mostly locked in ice caps and groundwater.
- 50 per cent+: World’s major rivers disrupted by dam construction.
- 47 per cent: Aquifers being depleted faster than they replenish.
- 1 billion: People with insecure land rights, fearing loss of home or land (e.g., 28% in MENA, 26% in sub-Saharan Africa).
- 1 in 5: People worldwide who paid bribes for land services in 2019—rising to 1 in 2 in sub-Saharan Africa.
- $500B+ (2013–2018): Agricultural subsidies across 88 countries, 90 per cent of which fuelled inefficient, harmful practices.
- $200B/year: Public and private finance for nature-based solutions, dwarfed by $7 trillion/year financing environmental harm.
- 145: nations that pledged in 2021 to halt deforestation by 2030; forest loss has since continued.