A study, commissioned by the Club of Rome, projects that Earth’s population will peak at 8.8bn before 2050 and then decline rapidly. This peak prediction is lower and earlier than previously forecast.
While this is potentially good news and suggests that pressure on society and the environment may begin to ease, the authors have warned that falling birth rates by themselves are not enough to solve the planet’s problems. If excessive consumption in wealthier nations continues, then so of course will pressure on environmental habitats and society. Furthermore, to avoid economic and political tensions, it will be important to adjust from an economic growth model built on growing populations.
In 2022, according to the Global Footprint Network which calculates Earth Overshoot Day, humans used the resources of 1.75 Earths. This means that as a species, humans are using up nature’s resources approximately 1.75 times faster than the planet’s ecosystems can regenerate them. This global figures masks enormous variability at local level.
The Guardian reports that the Club of Rome report findings are a cause for optimism. They quote Ben Callegari, one of the report authors, who said, “This gives us evidence to believe the population bomb won’t go off, but we still face significant challenges from an environmental perspective. We need a lot of effort to address the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population.”
Declining populations are also likely to cause new problems, for example a shrinking workforce funding an aging population in need of health care, a challenge that already exists in Japan and South Korea.