Tony Blair and the Tony Blair Institute are calling for a radical reset in the way the world tackles climate change – warning that current approaches cause public disengagement, division, and policy failure.
In the foreword to a new paper, The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change, authored by TBI’s Director of Climate and Energy Policy, Lindy Fursman, Blair argues that while climate activism has succeeded in raising awareness, today’s policy strategies have become disconnected from political, public, and economic reality, and the debate is “riven with irrationality”. The result is a widening credibility gap between climate policy and climate delivery.
Blair says, “Activists have shifted the political centre of gravity on climate the movement now needs a public mandate – attainable only through a shift from protest to pragmatic policy.”
Highlighting a cycle that pushes proposals but delivers little real progress on global emissions, he writes that “political leaders by and large know that the debate has become irrational” but are “terrified of saying so, for fear of being accused of being ‘climate deniers.’” Meanwhile, voters “feel they’re being asked to make financial sacrifices and changes in lifestyle when they know that their impact on global emissions is minimal.”
Mr Blair points to global trends that undermine today’s climate approach: fossil fuel use is set to rise further up to 2030, airline travel is to double over the next 20 years, and by 2030, almost two-thirds of emissions will come from China, India, and Southeast Asia. These are “inconvenient facts” he says, that mean that “any strategy based on either ‘phasing out’ fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail.”
While acknowledging COP’s role in scaling ambition, Mr Blair says “the process will not deliver change at the speed required.”
He proposes a new model which must evolve to match ambition with delivery. Blair says, “We now need a new process that scales global solutions. A new cooperative approach to technological solutions could be a galvanising next chapter – focussing political and real capital on alternative fuels and carbon capture technology, including financing, deployment and R&D.”
Nature-based solutions
Amongst other proposals Blair calls for a scaling up of nature-based solutions – from planting forests to developing carbon-smart crops, we must harness the power of nature and science together. Nature is one of our best allies in this fight, and we need to back it with smart science and innovation.
He says that solutions should include:
Expanding bio-engineered carbon-sequestering crops to enhance soil and forest carbon storage – For example, DNA editing allows crops to sequester more CO₂ and store it more durably,[30]Link to footnote including creating new crop varieties that photosynthesise more efficiently and funnel more carbon into the soil. Similar approaches are also being explored with bio-engineered trees designed to accumulate more biomass and absorb more carbon. Policy should help to accelerate these solutions.
Scaling agroecological and regenerative-agriculture practices – Practices like cover cropping and reduced tillage can increase soil organic matter and carbon storage. These practices require few inputs so are relatively low cost and can be adopted easily, having an immediate impact on emissions.
Utilising smart or precision agriculture – Including using internet-of-things sensor networks and machine-learning algorithms to optimise fertiliser application, reducing nitrogen emissions while improving crop yields. These systems can reduce fertiliser use by up to 30 per cent while maintaining or increasing production, directly cutting agriculture’s substantial nitrous-oxide emissions.
Enhancing coastal blue carbon solutions – Which collectively represent some of the most efficient carbon sinks on the planet. These ecosystems grow faster than terrestrial forests, meaning that they can absorb CO2 from the atmosphere at a faster pace. For example, mangrove forests sequester carbon up to four times faster than tropical rainforests and store up to ten times more carbon per equivalent area than traditional land-based forests. They also provide critical coastal protection against storms and erosion while supporting marine biodiversity. Similarly, seagrass meadows capture carbon 35 times faster than tropical rainforests and can store carbon for millennia in their sediments. Though they cover less than 0.2 per cent of the ocean floor, they store approximately 10 per cent of the ocean’s carbon.
He suggests the use of new technologies such as AI and drone-powered reforestation, underwater drones/robots for seagrass and mangrove seeding, and advanced monitoring systems for tracking blue carbon ecosystem health and sequestration.
Professor Myles Allen, Head of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, at the University of Oxford, dubbed as “the Physicist behind Net Zero”, said, “This paper is spot on about the need to simplify climate policy, to get back to what we originally meant by Net Zero when we introduced the concept back in 2009 – what it takes to stop global warming – and decouple it from “the Net Zero Agenda”, which has morphed into a whole raft of policies, many of which are very well-intentioned but have little to do with the long-term goal of stabilising global climate.”
Sir David King, former UK Government Chief Scientific Advisor and Special Representative for Climate Change, and Chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, welcomed the paper, saying, “In a fragmented world, leadership will not come from consensus alone – it will come from action. Countries that are able to lead – whether China, India, the UK, or others – must forge new alliances that drive change, demonstrate what is possible, and reimagine the path to a safer future. This is not about exclusion, but acceleration.
“This comes at a critical moment and captures something many of us feel. The science could not be clearer, the public is concerned, competitive non–fossil fuel solutions are available worldwide, yet climate action is increasingly caught in the crossfire of populism and polarised politics. We need to break this deadlock – and fast.
Blair’s critical actions for world leaders
Prioritise global investment in carbon capture – Investing in solutions that capture emissions at source before they reach the atmosphere, together with breakthrough technologies like direct air capture that permanently remove carbon. Both are technologically feasible but need policy and capital to scale.
Harness the power of technology, including AI – Decarbonising smarter and faster, technology can turbocharge the path to net zero, from smarter tech delivering lower bills, to better systems and faster progress. AI applied to energy efficiency and the better use of the energy grid is potentially revolutionary in reducing energy demand.
Invest in frontier energy solutions – Including new generation nuclear and fusion technologies. Small modular reactors offer hope but need integration into energy strategy. Scaling up means less pollution, more jobs and new abundant energy sources that don’t fuel the climate crisis.
Scale up nature-based solutions – From planting forests to developing carbon-smart crops, we must harness the power of nature and science together. Nature is one of our best allies in this fight, and we need to back it with smart science and innovation.
Move adaptation up the agenda – We must prioritise investing in resilience to prepare communities for the climate impacts they are already experiencing, such as severe flooding. This is about domestic and global resilience and security, and keeping people safe, today and tomorrow.
Simplifying global efforts to deliver collective action – While the multilateral process, characterised by COP, has been an integral part of achieving global consensus, this process is moving too slowly to deliver the outcomes needed. We need a laser focus on the key issues and targeted, high-impact agreements.
Reform financial tools and redirect philanthropy – Channel money into innovations that work through building new policy frameworks and refocus philanthropic efforts toward technological breakthroughs that move the needle.