The 2024 Forest Declaration Assessment report, “Forests under fire: Tracking progress on 2030 forest goals,” reveals critical insights into progress on halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation – essential goals for conserving biodiversity and climate stability.
Deforestation in 2023 reached 6.37 million hectares, putting the world 45 per cent off track from the needed trajectory to halt deforestation by the end of the decade.
Forest degradation rates were 20 per cent off track in tropical moist forests, while 62.6 million hectares of forests worldwide fell from a higher to a lower ecological integrity class.
While restoration is underway around the world, a full picture of progress is unclear due to severe limitations in available data from restoration monitoring. However, available evidence indicates that restoration progress is likely nowhere near the need.
Unfortunately, the 2024 Assessment findings also show that forest protection is increasingly vulnerable to both political and economic shifts.
As countries strive to prop up economies built on natural resource extraction and ever-expanding consumption, even as they attempt to transition toward sustainable alternatives like renewable energy, they must also navigate the complex relationship between energy demands and forest health. Political transitions across key nations further underscore the potential risks and opportunities for forest conservation in the coming years.
Sustainability transitions: A double-edged sword for forests
The renewable energy transition is essential in the fight against climate change, yet it presents its own set of challenges for forest conservation.
The 2024 Assessment highlights that surging demand for minerals, driven by the need for clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), is contributing to significant environmental impacts.
Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel are required for EV batteries and renewable infrastructure, but their extraction often leads to habitat destruction, water pollution, and biodiversity loss.
Despite record growth in renewable energy production, fossil fuel use also reached historic highs in 2023.
This continued reliance on coal and other fossil fuels compounds the pressure on forests as mining operations expand. Alarmingly, fossil fuels still account for 80 per cent of global energy supply, and this figure is expected to fall only to 73 per cent by 2030. As a result, the push for renewables has not yet resulted in the anticipated reductions in fossil fuel extraction or its associated deforestation.
The renewable energy transition does not have to come at the cost of forest ecosystems though, and the report underscores the need for policies that promote a more circular economy.
Minerals used in clean energy technologies can last for over a decade if systems are established to recover and recycle them. Without incentives for such circular approaches, however, the extraction and waste associated with renewable technologies will continue to pose significant risks to forests.
Intertwined human rights and biodiversity risks in the mining sector
The rush for critical minerals has also exacerbated human rights issues, particularly in regions rich in biodiversity. Data from Global Witness shows that mining was the largest industry driver of fatal attacks on environmental defenders in 2023.
Latin America and Asia, which are central to mineral supply chains, saw a disproportionate number of these attacks. This violence highlights the urgent need for stronger protections for Indigenous and local communities who play a vital role in safeguarding forests.
Policy frameworks are often inadequate to address these impacts. While countries like China are revising their laws to include ecological restoration requirements, these regulations frequently fall short in protecting overseas ecosystems.
As China’s overseas mining operations grow, concerns about environmental practices in tropical Africa and Asia intensify.
Achieving a balance between forest conservation and mineral demand will require comprehensive policies that safeguard both ecosystems and the rights of vulnerable communities.
Political transitions: risks and opportunities for forest conservation
In addition to the renewable energy transition, political transitions in key forest-rich countries present both risks and opportunities for global forest goals.
Two of the top countries for primary forest loss – Indonesia and Bolivia – will soon experience major political changes. Indonesia’s new president, taking office in October 2024, will influence policies affecting the country’s vast forests. Similarly, Bolivia’s 2025 elections will likely impact its approach to deforestation and forest degradation.
On the consumption side, political shifts in the EU and the United States in 2024 could have global repercussions.
The results of the June 2024 European elections may influence the European Green New Deal, which includes measures aimed at reducing deforestation linked to EU consumption. In the United States, the outcome of federal elections in November could affect the future of the US Forest Act, legislation aimed at curbing deforestation due diligence – and could also reverberate far beyond that act into larger implications for global climate action.
These transitions offer moments to reassess and strengthen commitments to forest conservation. However, they also pose risks if new administrations deprioritize environmental policies in favour of economic growth or other concerns. For global forest protection to remain resilient, it is essential that policies supporting forest health are insulated from such political shifts.
A path forward: Aligning forest goals with economic and political priorities
As countries navigate both political and economic transitions, the path forward must involve a holistic approach to forest conservation.
This includes promoting alternative models of resource use, such as circular economies that reduce reliance on virgin materials. It also involves leveraging political transitions to reinforce commitments to forest conservation and ensuring that renewable energy policies, and other policies intended to achieve the needed sustainability transition, do not inadvertently harm forests.
Ultimately, the challenges outlined in the 2024 Forest Declaration Assessment underscore that achieving forest conservation goals and advancing sustainable economic development are not mutually exclusive. But success depends on the willingness of governments, industry, and civil society to prioritize forests and integrate sustainable practices at every level. With just a few years remaining before 2030, the time to act is now.
Read the 2024 Forest Declaration Assessment: Forests under fire